SB Trade Desk is a premium trading/analysis service with veteran traders Jamie Saettele & Michael Boutros offering market commentary on FX, Commodities & Equity Indices. Subscribers gain access to daily trade setups (entry, limit & stop), live webinars & exclusive intra-day squawk updates on the markets you follow – Learn more

2/24/2021 – Inflation Trade Observations

Too far, too fast for the ‘inflation trade’?  Inflation trades are approaching significant price levels and exhibiting extreme momentum levels consistent with at least a pause in the underlying trend.

@JamieSaettele

Discount Offer!

 

U.S. GOVERNMENT 30 YEAR YIELD

U.S. Government 30 Year Yield

The 30 year U.S. yield is one of the purest representations of the ‘inflation trade’.  The yield bottomed in March (along with everything else) right at the full extension from the channel that originates at the 1987 high.  I’ve misjudged the speed and strength of the rally but 2.44 looms as the biggest test since the low.  This is the center line of the noted channel and the November 2019 high.  A move back to the lower parallel, which has been significant, wouldn’t surprise.  That is about 1.69.  A zoomed in chart is below.

U.S. GOVERNMENT 30 YEAR YIELD

U.S. Government 30 Year Yield

TLT DAILY

TLT Daily

TLT tagged the March low today (also the 2015 high).  Big spot.  RSI is 20.97.  Readings this low (magenta dots) are rare and have occurred either at or just before big lows (see the chart below as well).  Remember, lower TLT indicates higher yield and higher TLT indicates lower yield.  In other words, this chart ‘fits’ with the 30 year yield chart.

TLT DAILY

TLT Daily

COPPER WEEKLY

Copper Weekly

Copper is another pure inflation trade asset.  Price is closing in on the underside of the long term trendline (log scale) that was resistance in 2017 and 2018.  Daily RSI is almost 88!  Readings this high have occurred at or near price tops except for April 2006, when copper dropped for 2 weeks before going into a blowoff.

COPPER DAILY

Copper Daily

COPPER DAILY

Copper Daily

Discount Offer!

Membership Discount

For original market insights and analysis of intraday, daily, weekly and monthly charts, member only webinars, Twitter updates, and trade plans, then join the SB community.

Membership Benefits
  • Swing Trade Setups
    • Daily updates on chart setups, existing positions, pending positions, and the ‘watch list’ (updated after NY close).
    • Midweek Strategy Webinar every Wednesday
    • Goal is to execute 10 setups per month
    • Special Reports- Provide longer term perspectives on FX and include analysis of metals, interest rates, and/or major indices (published when market conditions warrant)
  • Intra-day Setups
    • Daily & Intra-day Radar Charts on focus pairs
    • Daily Intraday Update on operative trades highlighting directional bias, scalp targets & invalidation levels
    • Intraday Strategy Webinars every Tuesday & Thursday highlighting current/active trade setups and Q&A
  • SB Squawk
    • Live stream of exclusive tweets available only to SB Trade Desk subscribers
    • Market alerts, trade updates, latest reports, webinar reminders & market commentary
Discount Offer!

 

Get Started to Gain Full Access to Premium Content
Level Price  
SB Trade Desk $149.99 per Month. Select

← Return to Home