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September SB Trade Desk Recap
Trading results and some analysis examples from September are below. If you think that the trade ideas and/or analysis can compliment your trading process, then click on the button below to join the community.
NASDAQ FUTURES (NQ) 4 HOUR
NQ made a 4 hour volume reversal today. I didn’t think much of the signal until I plotted it on the chart. See for yourself! The last year of such signals are plotted above. The most recent bearish signal identified the April high. Also, today’s high nailed the upper parallel from the year long channel (see below). The combination of the volume signal and level (channel) warrants a contrarian (bearish) stance.
NASDAQ FUTURES (NQ) 4 HOUR
SPOT SILVER DAILY
Silver surged Friday and is testing a key level defined by the upper parallel of the fork that originates at the February high, 7/21 low, and 50 day average. I’m looking for a pullback at minimum with possible support near 24.27.
NZDUSD has reached the upper parallel of the channel from the February high. This is a good spot for at least a pullback. If a pullback materializes, then I’d be aware of possible support from the 25 line (former resistance). That line is about .7030. Also, there is an RSI ‘reverse divergence’ sell setup. This occurs when RSI takes out a pivot high but price remains below the equivalent price high. The logic is basically that momentum (RSI) has gotten too far ahead of price.
The Kiwi drop also appears impulsive (5 waves). The implication is the same as it is for GBPUSD. That is, I’m thinking that a corrective (3 wave) bounce is underway from today’s low. .7127/36 is ideal resistance. Near term downside focus remains .7030 or so.
USDCAD 4 HOUR
The bigger picture for USDCAD isn’t clear but today’s post BoC spike looks like a classic ‘sell the news’ trade. Resistance is well-defined at 1.2708/20s (8/27 high and year open) and 1.2580/90 remains well-defined for support. In fact, the 61.8% retrace of the rally from 9/3 is 1.2596.
GBPUSD 4 HOUR
Cable put in a BIG reversal today. I’m not sure what’s going on from a pattern perspective but today’s reversal was accompanied by high volume. The chart below shows high volume (1 day) reversals in futures. Those are some good signals! Also, note that 2021 VWAP was resistance (2 charts down). ‘Levels wise’, price might bounce from near 1.3775. Watch for resistance near 1.3445.
BRITISH POUND FUTURES DAILY
BRITISH POUND FUTURES DAILY
USDJPY is testing a key spot defined by the line off of the April and August lows and the 8/16 low. Recall the bearish setup in GBPJPY (see yesterday’s post) but I’ll note the possibility of a bounce in USDJPY from the current level given the noted level and 4 hour volume reversal in futures (see below…remember that futures are quoted JPYUSD so the chart is ‘flipped’).
JAPANESE YEN FUTURES 4 HOUR
USDJPY held the noted line and followed through on the volume reversal (futures…see yesterday’s post). It’s possible that everything since the March high is a triangle that resolves with a breakout higher. As such, I’m bullish here against the 9/15 low at 109.11. Possible range resistance is 110.97.
USDOLLAR is closing in on the LONG HELD decision point of 12130/60. This is a HUGE level and I’d be surprised if we don’t see a decent reaction lower…at least initially.
DXY is also into the bottom of its longer term possible resistance zone (remember the long term page?). 94.47/74 includes the 38.2% retrace of the decline from March 2020, the September 2020 high (also the former 4th wave) and the March 2020 low. HUGE level and I do expect a reaction and possibly a more important reversal lower. Wait and see.
With USDOLLAR and DXY testing key levels, it’s no surprise that EURUSD is also testing a key level. Again, 1.1600 is the November (election) 2020 low, 2 equal legs down from the January high, and channel support. Also, the 200 week average is just below (see below). The level is extremely well-defined by this chart looks insanely bearish. Wait and see what happens here. If we break lower then the underside of the channel would become resistance near 1.1600. If we bounce then the first level to pay attention to is 1.1660s.
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