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8/11/2017: Gold Turning Higher Against S&P 500

A period of gold out-performance relative to the S&P 500 is in its infancy.  Although gold bottomed in December 2015, the gold/SPX ratio made a new low in July.  The dynamic is similar to 1999-2000.  Gold made its low in July 1999 but the gold/SPX ratio didn’t bottom until August 2000 (ratio did not quite drop below the July 1999 ratio low however).  In fact, price behavior in the ratio following the February 1997 oversold condition is nearly identical to price behavior following the June 2013 oversold condition.  Oversold in this context refers to RSI and a deep oversold condition indicates a realization of trend.  The idea is to compare the time series from their respective ‘trend realization points’.  Consider then that the ratio bottomed 29 months after February 1997 and 29 months after June 2013.  In both instances, the ratio rallied for 3 months and then dropped for 10 months.  The notable difference is that the ratio made a slight new low in July.  Consider that low a stop run / false breakdown that could make the coming bull leg even more powerful.  Pay attention to the 200 week average in the ratio.  The ratio is currently .60 and may provide resistance for a minor pause, as it did in March 2001.

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Gold/SPX Weekly

Gold/SPX Weekly and Gold (blue line)

Gold/SPX Monthly

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