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1/29/2020: Weekly Volume Reversals in Nasdaq and Dow

Our trading focus at SB centers around FX but we also provide analysis and ideas for major indices and various commodities.  Rare long term reversal signals triggered last week in Nasdaq and Dow futures.  We’ve been calling out levels in the near term (including the 3233 low in S&Ps on Monday) but these longer term signals deserve attention.  These charts are so important that I’m sharing them with the public.  The following charts and comments are from the 1/26 SB Swing Update.

-Jamie Saettele

@JamieSaettele

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Nasdaq Futures (NQ) Weekly 

Nasdaq futures triggered a bearish weekly volume reversal last week.  This is the 4th bearish weekly reversal since the 2009 low.  To review, the first requirement for a weekly volume reversal is a high volume up week at a 50 week closing high.  The next week is then a down week on high volume.  In other words, a buying climax is immediately followed by weakness on high volume.  The idea is to identify weak longs (bought at the top and are immediately under water).  The opposite is true of course for bullish reversals.  The prior weekly reversals were the weeks that ended 10/11/13 (didn’t work), 9/26/14 (10.56% drop in 4 weeks), and 2/2/2018 (12.5% drop in 2 weeks).

Dow Futures (YM) Weekly 

Dow futures also triggered a bearish weekly volume reversal.  This is just the 3rd instance since 2004.  The prior 2 occurred the weeks that ended 1/23/04 (marked the beginning of a choppy 10% pullback that lasted 39 weeks) and 2/2/2018 (13.5% decline in 2 weeks).

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