COT: Incredible Shifts in British Pound and Silver Markets

The latest readings for the British Pound and silver are the most extreme ever! The implication is that risk is increased for a British Pound top and silver low.

Swissie Trendline – Watch the Weekly Close

A major trendline is being tested in Swissie. This is the 5th test of the trendline and 7th touch (first 2 touches make the line).

COT Warning: Canadian Dollar Record Ownership Profile

Record speculative shorts and commercial longs indicate CAD reversal risk.

Clean DXY Price Levels (Video)

Sign up HERE to receive free market updates. If you want more insights, including analysis of intraday, daily, weekly and monthly charts, member only webinars, Twitter updates, and trade plans, then join the SB community (click here for more). DXY (US Dollar Index) opened the week on the low and rallied into Thursday.  Many were looking […]

COT: Extreme Speculative Selling in SILVER Warns of Capitulation

Speculative selling – commercial buying reached -43,761 contracts last week. This is the 5th largest one week figure on record. The blue dots on the silver chart below indicate instances when the combination of speculative buying and commercial selling was this extreme.

Prepare to Get Lucky

‘Rather be lucky than good’ is a common saying. I’m not sure what it really means but there are certainly people that are considered lucky and some that can’t get out of their own way.

Trading Tactics: Japanese Yen Recently

People are obsessed with being right. In trading, tactics are more important than being correct (buying GBPUSD on 3/14 and getting stopped out is a good example of ‘being right’ and losing money with bad tactics for example). Tactics include but are not limited to HOW you enter and exit the trade. My experience with USDJPY of late is a prime example.

Interest Rates Differentials and EURUSD

People will say all kinds of things to sound smart. One of my favorites is throwing out ‘yield spread’ every now and then. “Well, the US-German spread is widening so EURUSD should continue to face pressure” has been bandied about in recent weeks. Insofar as being forward looking, it’s BS because yield spreads don’t reliably lead FX rates.

Copper – Example of a Chart and Headline Combination

The contrarian magazine cover indicator is well-known (see here for a recent example) but news outlets also provide a source for contrarian signals. The WSJ provided one last week on copper. The following was published in the 2/21 SB Swing Update.

Trump, Abe, and USDJPY Price Levels

Ok, maybe you clicked on this because Trump was in the title. Trump doesn’t have a whole lot to do with where we decide to buy or sell though. Sure, USDJPY ripped some on Thursday after Trump mentioned that we he would unveil a ‘phenomenal tax package’ in 2 weeks.