COT: Coffee Spill

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. This week’s update includes observations on Coffee.

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  • Record positioning in Platinum…again
  • Record positioning in Coffee and extreme 4 week position change
  • Record positioning in Kiwi (NZD)

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – U.S. Dollar Index, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Nikkei, Platinum, Soybean Oil, Lean Hogs, Coffee

13 Week Volume Highs – None

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar100S&P 5004930 Yr US Bond0Gold2
Euro10NASDAQ 1008810 Year US Note6Silver2
British Pound8Dow595 Year US Note4Copper0
Swiss Franc35Nikkei222 Year US Note28Platinum16
Japanese Yen59Eurodollar47
Canadian Dollar16
Australian Dollar10
New Zealand Dollar20
Mexican Peso12
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil18Wheat84Lean Hogs43Coffee2
Heating Oil43Hard Red Winter Wheat77Live Cattle37Cotton31
RBOB Gas80Corn43Feeder Cattle12Frozen OJ59
Natural Gas67Oats24Cocoa41
Soybean Oil0
Soybean Meal31
Rough Rice2

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated July 3rd, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Coffee ICEUS Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Coffee is at a record.  Simply, the extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.

Coffee ICEUS Continuous Contract

The change in positions over a 4 week period in Coffee is also at a record!  Extreme speculative selling and commercial buying suggests capitulation and therefore potential for a price low.