COT: Coffee Spill

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. This week’s update includes observations on Coffee.

Sign up HERE to receive free market updates.

If you want more insights, including analysis of intraday, daily, weekly and monthly charts, member only webinars, Twitter updates, and trade plans, then join the SB community (click here for more).

  • Record positioning in Platinum…again
  • Record positioning in Coffee and extreme 4 week position change
  • Record positioning in Kiwi (NZD)

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – U.S. Dollar Index, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Nikkei, Platinum, Soybean Oil, Lean Hogs, Coffee

13 Week Volume Highs – None

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar100S&P 5004730 Yr US Bond12Gold24
Euro0NASDAQ 1001810 Year US Note26Silver35
British Pound20Dow315 Year US Note55Copper16
Swiss Franc47Nikkei122 Year US Note2Platinum69
Japanese Yen37Eurodollar92
Canadian Dollar63
Australian Dollar14
New Zealand Dollar22
Mexican Peso10
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil0Wheat47Lean Hogs65Coffee98
Heating Oil20Hard Red Winter Wheat26Live Cattle51Cotton4
RBOB Gas26Corn57Feeder Cattle2Frozen OJ0
Natural Gas100Oats61Cocoa16
Soybean Oil39
Soybean Meal18
Rough Rice31

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated July 3rd, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Coffee ICEUS Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Coffee is at a record.  Simply, the extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.

Coffee ICEUS Continuous Contract

The change in positions over a 4 week period in Coffee is also at a record!  Extreme speculative selling and commercial buying suggests capitulation and therefore potential for a price low.