COT: Coffee Spill

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. This week’s update includes observations on Coffee.

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  • Record positioning in Platinum…again
  • Record positioning in Coffee and extreme 4 week position change
  • Record positioning in Kiwi (NZD)

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – U.S. Dollar Index, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Nikkei, Platinum, Soybean Oil, Lean Hogs, Coffee

13 Week Volume Highs – None

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar33S&P 5001030 Yr US Bond73Gold61
Euro0NASDAQ 1004710 Year US Note96Silver73
British Pound77Dow375 Year US Note92Copper65
Swiss Franc37Nikkei182 Year US Note75Platinum84
Japanese Yen41Eurodollar100
Canadian Dollar12
Australian Dollar29
New Zealand Dollar65
Mexican Peso100
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil35Wheat6Lean Hogs92Coffee37
Heating Oil14Hard Red Winter Wheat0Live Cattle100Cotton16
RBOB Gas43Corn2Feeder Cattle100Frozen OJ41
Natural Gas59Oats41Cocoa2
Soybean Oil84
Soybean Meal8
Rough Rice6

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated July 3rd, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Coffee ICEUS Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Coffee is at a record.  Simply, the extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.

Coffee ICEUS Continuous Contract

The change in positions over a 4 week period in Coffee is also at a record!  Extreme speculative selling and commercial buying suggests capitulation and therefore potential for a price low.