COT: Coffee Spill

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. This week’s update includes observations on Coffee.

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  • Record positioning in Platinum…again
  • Record positioning in Coffee and extreme 4 week position change
  • Record positioning in Kiwi (NZD)

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – U.S. Dollar Index, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Nikkei, Platinum, Soybean Oil, Lean Hogs, Coffee

13 Week Volume Highs – None

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar98S&P 5006730 Yr US Bond28Gold6
Euro0NASDAQ 1006110 Year US Note8Silver47
British Pound4Dow185 Year US Note12Copper0
Swiss Franc4Nikkei42 Year US Note90Platinum2
Japanese Yen69Eurodollar35
Canadian Dollar0
Australian Dollar0
New Zealand Dollar0
Mexican Peso12
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil67Wheat88Lean Hogs0Coffee2
Heating Oil59Hard Red Winter Wheat45Live Cattle26Cotton51
RBOB Gas96Corn49Feeder Cattle12Frozen OJ94
Natural Gas31Oats10Cocoa84
Soybeans26Sugar80
Soybean Oil2
Soybean Meal55
Rough Rice57

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated July 3rd, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Coffee ICEUS Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Coffee is at a record.  Simply, the extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.

Coffee ICEUS Continuous Contract

The change in positions over a 4 week period in Coffee is also at a record!  Extreme speculative selling and commercial buying suggests capitulation and therefore potential for a price low.