COT: Corn and Cotton Opposite Ownership Profiles

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. This week’s update includes observations on corn and cotton.

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  • CORN over-owned
  • COTTON under-owned

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – Canadian Dollar, Eurodollar, Corn

52 Week Volume Highs – Silver

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar22S&P 5002930 Yr US Bond61Gold98
Euro61NASDAQ 1007710 Year US Note45Silver96
British Pound2Dow925 Year US Note82Copper20
Swiss Franc94Nikkei782 Year US Note37Platinum78
Japanese Yen94Eurodollar98
Canadian Dollar100
Australian Dollar75
New Zealand Dollar57
Mexican Peso77
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil43Wheat67Lean Hogs77Coffee94
Heating Oil65Hard Red Winter Wheat43Live Cattle4Cotton4
RBOB Gas12Corn92Feeder Cattle31Frozen OJ29
Natural Gas0Oats69Cocoa98
Soybean Oil49
Soybean Meal16
Rough Rice94

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated July 19th, 2019

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray


CORN CBOT Continuous Contract

The CORN ownership profile is at the upper end of its historical range (speculators are extremely long and commercials are extremely short), which is bearish from a contrarian perspective.  ‘Commercial capitulation’ is rare but shouldn’t be dismissed.  This occurred in 2008 and 2010-2011.  Bottom line, spec longs are crowded so be aware of sharp weakness on a break of recent range lows.

COTTON ICE Continuous Contract

The COTTON ownership profile is at the lower end of its historical range (speculators are extremely short and commercials are extremely long), which is bullish from a contrarian perspective.  I’m looking for a low.