COT: Corn Pops but Speculative Activity is a Warning

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. The only COT observation this week involves corn.  Do not forget about last week’s observations regarding Silver and Natural Gas.

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  • Speculative activity in Corn is a warning for bulls
  • Soybeans sell off after last week’s warning
  • Don’t forget about last week’s observations on Silver and Nat Gas

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – 10 yr U.S. T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Feeder Cattle, Cocoa

13 Week Volume Highs – Cocoa

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar53S&P 5006730 Yr US Bond55Gold37
Euro94NASDAQ 1002810 Year US Note8Silver4
British Pound75Dow65 Year US Note6Copper55
Swiss Franc71Nikkei882 Year US Note61Platinum78
Japanese Yen67Eurodollar0
Canadian Dollar37
Australian Dollar16
New Zealand Dollar45
Mexican Peso63
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil84Wheat88Lean Hogs0Coffee18
Heating Oil20Hard Red Winter Wheat82Live Cattle8Cotton86
RBOB Gas61Corn100Feeder Cattle0Frozen OJ35
Natural Gas20Oats77Cocoa100
Soybean Oil43
Soybean Meal96
Rough Rice41

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated March 6th, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Corn CBOT Continuous Contract

The 4 week change in Corn positions is extreme (speculators buying and commercials selling).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price high or a pause within an uptrend.  In fact, the 4 week change in Corn positions is the highest since July 2015, which marked an important price high.