COT: Extreme Speculative Buying in Crude Oil Last Week

The COT report is published each Monday and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics.  This week’s report includes observations on Crude Oil and KC Wheat.

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  • Extreme speculative buying in Crude Oil the last 1 and 4 weeks
  • Record 1 week speculative selling in KC Wheat

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Mexican Peso, Oats

13 Week Volume Highs – RBOB Gasoline

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar6S&P 5007730 Yr US Bond98Gold69
Euro90NASDAQ 100810 Year US Note71Silver14
British Pound82Dow1005 Year US Note80Copper67
Swiss Franc78Nikkei672 Year US Note20Platinum59
Japanese Yen24Eurodollar67
Canadian Dollar98
Australian Dollar98
New Zealand Dollar88
Mexican Peso88
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil80Wheat82Lean Hogs92Coffee31
Heating Oil73Hard Red Winter Wheat86Live Cattle59Cotton8
Natural Gas39Corn82Feeder Cattle61Frozen OJ8
RBOB Gas75Oats84Cocoa16
Soybeans29Sugar0
Soybean Oil41
Soybean Meal14
Rough Rice100

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (100 reading on the table) with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (0 reading on the table) with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated August 1st, 2017

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Crude Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract

The 4 week change in Crude Oil positions is extreme (speculators buying and commercials selling).  The only higher 4 week change was in late December 2016, just before a price top.

HRW Wheat CBOT Continuous Contract

The 1 week change in KC Wheat is extreme.  Speculators have been sellers and commercials buyers.  In fact, this is the exact opposite situation from 6 weeks ago (2 weeks before the top)!  The implication is bullish.