COT: Extreme Speculative Buying in Crude Oil Last Week

The COT report is published each Monday and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics.  This week’s report includes observations on Crude Oil and KC Wheat.

Sign up HERE to receive free market updates.

If you want more insights, including analysis of intraday, daily, weekly and monthly charts, member only webinars, Twitter updates, and trade plans, then join the SB community (click here for more).

  • Extreme speculative buying in Crude Oil the last 1 and 4 weeks
  • Record 1 week speculative selling in KC Wheat

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Mexican Peso, Oats

13 Week Volume Highs – RBOB Gasoline

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar10S&P 5006130 Yr US Bond100Gold12
Euro100NASDAQ 100210 Year US Note41Silver2
British Pound96Dow735 Year US Note20Copper37
Swiss Franc4Nikkei592 Year US Note28Platinum18
Japanese Yen14Eurodollar33
Canadian Dollar65
Australian Dollar33
New Zealand Dollar10
Mexican Peso69
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil100Wheat2Lean Hogs63Coffee0
Heating Oil75Hard Red Winter Wheat0Live Cattle57Cotton55
RBOB Gas69Corn20Feeder Cattle28Frozen OJ49
Natural Gas0Oats77Cocoa84
Soybeans55Sugar31
Soybean Oil33
Soybean Meal98
Rough Rice51

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (100 reading on the table) with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (0 reading on the table) with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated August 1st, 2017

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Crude Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract

The 4 week change in Crude Oil positions is extreme (speculators buying and commercials selling).  The only higher 4 week change was in late December 2016, just before a price top.

HRW Wheat CBOT Continuous Contract

The 1 week change in KC Wheat is extreme.  Speculators have been sellers and commercials buyers.  In fact, this is the exact opposite situation from 6 weeks ago (2 weeks before the top)!  The implication is bullish.