COT: Japanese Yen Speculators Forced to Cover Shorts

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. This week’s update includes observations on Japanese Yen, Silver, and Sugar.

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  • Short covering in Yen warns of near term capitulation
  • Record speculative short position in silver
  • Record speculative short position in sugar

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – Japanese Yen, Nikkei, Silver, Wheat, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, Cocoa, Sugar

13 Week Volume Highs – Platinum 

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar28S&P 50010030 Yr US Bond37Gold33
Euro96NASDAQ 100610 Year US Note6Silver10
British Pound100Dow05 Year US Note2Copper41
Swiss Franc51Nikkei922 Year US Note80Platinum31
Japanese Yen98Eurodollar0
Canadian Dollar28
Australian Dollar6
New Zealand Dollar88
Mexican Peso86
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil96Wheat84Lean Hogs0Coffee0
Heating Oil43Hard Red Winter Wheat80Live Cattle0Cotton67
RBOB Gas47Corn92Feeder Cattle0Frozen OJ51
Natural Gas35Oats4Cocoa100
Soybeans100Sugar8
Soybean Oil18
Soybean Meal92
Rough Rice71

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated March 20th, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray