COT: Platinum is a Crowded Short

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. This week’s update includes observations on the New Zealand Dollar, Platinum, and Soybeans.

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  • Record positioning in S&P 500
  • Record positioning in Copper
  • Specs are still heavily long Wheat

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – U.S. Dollar Index, Euro, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Nikkei, Platinum, Soybean Oil, Sugar

13 Week Volume Highs – None

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar22S&P 5002930 Yr US Bond61Gold98
Euro61NASDAQ 1007710 Year US Note45Silver96
British Pound2Dow925 Year US Note82Copper20
Swiss Franc94Nikkei782 Year US Note37Platinum78
Japanese Yen94Eurodollar98
Canadian Dollar100
Australian Dollar75
New Zealand Dollar57
Mexican Peso77
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil43Wheat67Lean Hogs77Coffee94
Heating Oil65Hard Red Winter Wheat43Live Cattle4Cotton4
RBOB Gas12Corn92Feeder Cattle31Frozen OJ29
Natural Gas0Oats69Cocoa98
Soybeans96Sugar14
Soybean Oil49
Soybean Meal16
Rough Rice94

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated June 26th, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

New Zealand Dollar CME Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in the New Zealand Dollar is at a record.  Simply, the extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.

Platinum NYMEX Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Platinum is at a record.  Simply, the extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.

 

Soybeans CBOT Continuous Contract

The change in positioning between speculators and commercials reached a record on both a 1 and 4 week basis last week.  Record changes in positions with speculators selling and commercials buying tends to indicate capitulation and in this instance a price low.