COT: Precious Metals Positioning is the Most Extreme Ever

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. This week’s update includes observations on gold, silver, and platinum.

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  • Record ownership profile in gold
  • Record ownership profile in silver
  • Record ownership profile in platinum

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum

13 Week Volume Highs – Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar33S&P 5001030 Yr US Bond73Gold61
Euro0NASDAQ 1004710 Year US Note96Silver73
British Pound77Dow375 Year US Note92Copper65
Swiss Franc37Nikkei182 Year US Note75Platinum84
Japanese Yen41Eurodollar100
Canadian Dollar12
Australian Dollar29
New Zealand Dollar65
Mexican Peso100
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil35Wheat6Lean Hogs92Coffee37
Heating Oil14Hard Red Winter Wheat0Live Cattle100Cotton16
RBOB Gas43Corn2Feeder Cattle100Frozen OJ41
Natural Gas59Oats41Cocoa2
Soybeans14Sugar35
Soybean Oil84
Soybean Meal8
Rough Rice6

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated September 4th, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

 

Gold COMEX Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Gold is at a record.  In fact, the only other period in which the net speculative position was short was for several weeks in August, November, and December 2001.

Silver COMEX Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Silver is at a record.  The extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.

Platinum COMEX Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Platinum is at a record.  The extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.