COT: Record Speculative Long Copper Position

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics.  This week’s report includes observations on Euro, Silver, and Copper.

Sign up HERE to receive free market updates.

If you want more insights, including analysis of intraday, daily, weekly and monthly charts, member only webinars, Twitter updates, and trade plans, then join the SB community (click here for more).

  • Warning for Euro longs
  • Specs jump on the silver bandwagon
  • Warning for Copper longs

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – Euro, Australian Dollar, S&P 500, Copper, Heating Oil

13 Week Volume Highs – None

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar39S&P 5006130 Yr US Bond73Gold82
Euro100NASDAQ 1001210 Year US Note16Silver26
British Pound100Dow575 Year US Note2Copper98
Swiss Franc14Nikkei02 Year US Note4Platinum69
Japanese Yen10Eurodollar31
Canadian Dollar55
Australian Dollar18
New Zealand Dollar37
Mexican Peso31
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil100Wheat28Lean Hogs77Coffee14
Heating Oil98Hard Red Winter Wheat20Live Cattle8Cotton77
RBOB Gas98Corn20Feeder Cattle16Frozen OJ14
Natural Gas8Oats55Cocoa88
Soybeans6Sugar53
Soybean Oil35
Soybean Meal71
Rough Rice26

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (100 reading on the table) with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (0 reading on the table) with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated January 2nd, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Euro CME Continuous Contract

The Euro ownership profile has reached a record.  An extreme speculative long position and extreme commercial short position warns of a sentiment extreme and therefore a price high.

Silver COMEX Continuous Contract

The 1 week change in Silver positions is extreme (speculators buying and commercials selling).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price high or a pause within an uptrend.

Copper COMEX Continuous Contract

The Copper ownership profile has reached a record.  An extreme speculative long position and extreme commercial short position warns of a sentiment extreme and therefore a price high.