COT: Silver Could Shine Again

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. This week’s report includes observations on Silver, Natural Gas, and Soybeans.  Look for lows in Silver and Natural Gas in particular.

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  • Look for a low in Silver
  • Natural Gas is attractive on this dip
  • Soybeans rally could run out of steam

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – 10 yr U.S. T-Notes, Eurodollar, Silver, Corn, Soybeans, Soybean Meal

13 Week Volume Highs – 2 yr U.S. T-Notes, Wheat, Rough Rice

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar94S&P 50010030 Yr US Bond12Gold20
Euro16NASDAQ 1003310 Year US Note12Silver24
British Pound41Dow245 Year US Note14Copper100
Swiss Franc4Nikkei22 Year US Note98Platinum4
Japanese Yen88Eurodollar31
Canadian Dollar26
Australian Dollar10
New Zealand Dollar49
Mexican Peso0
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil53Wheat100Lean Hogs6Coffee57
Heating Oil47Hard Red Winter Wheat94Live Cattle8Cotton98
RBOB Gas80Corn73Feeder Cattle8Frozen OJ96
Natural Gas71Oats2Cocoa82
Soybeans67Sugar92
Soybean Oil4
Soybean Meal69
Rough Rice0

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated February 27th, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Silver COMEX Continuous Contract

The Silver ownership profile is extreme.  The net speculative position is actually net short for the first time since April 2003 (circled and vertical line).  The net speculative position almost turned net short at the June 2013 low (also circled and vertical line).  The implication is bullish.

Natural Gas NYMEX Continuous Contract

The 4 week change in Natural Gas positions is extreme (speculators selling and commercials buying).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price low or a pause within a downtrend.  In fact, the 4 week change is a record in terms of speculative selling…this just 5 weeks after record speculative buying at the top!  Look for a low.

Soybeans CBOT Continuous Contract

The 4 week change in Soybeans positions is extreme (speculators buying and commercials selling).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price high or a pause within an uptrend.  Previous instances of 4 week extreme readings are denoted by red arrows.  Many (not all) led to tops.