COT: Specs Give Up on Australian and New Zealand Dollars

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics.  This week’s report includes observations on Australian and New Zealand Dollars.

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  • Aussie and Kiwi sold out?
  • Silver ownership profile is now extreme
  • Another record spec short position in Coffee

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Silver, Natural Gas, Coffee

13 Week Volume Highs – None

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar100S&P 5004930 Yr US Bond0Gold2
Euro10NASDAQ 1008810 Year US Note6Silver2
British Pound8Dow595 Year US Note4Copper0
Swiss Franc35Nikkei222 Year US Note28Platinum16
Japanese Yen59Eurodollar47
Canadian Dollar16
Australian Dollar10
New Zealand Dollar20
Mexican Peso12
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil18Wheat84Lean Hogs43Coffee2
Heating Oil43Hard Red Winter Wheat77Live Cattle37Cotton31
RBOB Gas80Corn43Feeder Cattle12Frozen OJ59
Natural Gas67Oats24Cocoa41
Soybeans4Sugar28
Soybean Oil0
Soybean Meal31
Rough Rice2

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (100 reading on the table) with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (0 reading on the table) with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated December 19, 2017

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Australian Dollar CME Continuous Contract

Speculators have flipped to a net short position in Australian Dollars.  Since the 2016 low, the Aussie has turned up sharply each time speculators have flipped to a net short position.

Australian Dollar CME Continuous Contract

The 1 and 4 week changes in Australian Dollar positions is extreme (speculators selling and commercials buying).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price low.

New Zealand Dollar CME Continuous Contract

The New Zealand Dollar ownership profile is near a record.  An extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a sentiment extreme and therefore a price low.