COT: Specs Give Up on Australian and New Zealand Dollars

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics.  This week’s report includes observations on Australian and New Zealand Dollars.

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  • Aussie and Kiwi sold out?
  • Silver ownership profile is now extreme
  • Another record spec short position in Coffee

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Silver, Natural Gas, Coffee

13 Week Volume Highs – None

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar94S&P 50010030 Yr US Bond12Gold20
Euro16NASDAQ 1003310 Year US Note12Silver24
British Pound41Dow245 Year US Note14Copper100
Swiss Franc4Nikkei22 Year US Note98Platinum4
Japanese Yen88Eurodollar31
Canadian Dollar26
Australian Dollar10
New Zealand Dollar49
Mexican Peso0
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil53Wheat100Lean Hogs6Coffee57
Heating Oil47Hard Red Winter Wheat94Live Cattle8Cotton98
RBOB Gas80Corn73Feeder Cattle8Frozen OJ96
Natural Gas71Oats2Cocoa82
Soybeans67Sugar92
Soybean Oil4
Soybean Meal69
Rough Rice0

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (100 reading on the table) with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (0 reading on the table) with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated December 19, 2017

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Australian Dollar CME Continuous Contract

Speculators have flipped to a net short position in Australian Dollars.  Since the 2016 low, the Aussie has turned up sharply each time speculators have flipped to a net short position.

Australian Dollar CME Continuous Contract

The 1 and 4 week changes in Australian Dollar positions is extreme (speculators selling and commercials buying).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price low.

New Zealand Dollar CME Continuous Contract

The New Zealand Dollar ownership profile is near a record.  An extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a sentiment extreme and therefore a price low.