COT: Specs Give Up on Australian and New Zealand Dollars

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics.  This week’s report includes observations on Australian and New Zealand Dollars.

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  • Aussie and Kiwi sold out?
  • Silver ownership profile is now extreme
  • Another record spec short position in Coffee

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Silver, Natural Gas, Coffee

13 Week Volume Highs – None

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar39S&P 5006130 Yr US Bond73Gold82
Euro100NASDAQ 1001210 Year US Note16Silver26
British Pound100Dow575 Year US Note2Copper98
Swiss Franc14Nikkei02 Year US Note4Platinum69
Japanese Yen10Eurodollar31
Canadian Dollar55
Australian Dollar18
New Zealand Dollar37
Mexican Peso31
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil100Wheat28Lean Hogs77Coffee14
Heating Oil98Hard Red Winter Wheat20Live Cattle8Cotton77
RBOB Gas98Corn20Feeder Cattle16Frozen OJ14
Natural Gas8Oats55Cocoa88
Soybeans6Sugar53
Soybean Oil35
Soybean Meal71
Rough Rice26

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (100 reading on the table) with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (0 reading on the table) with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated December 19, 2017

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Australian Dollar CME Continuous Contract

Speculators have flipped to a net short position in Australian Dollars.  Since the 2016 low, the Aussie has turned up sharply each time speculators have flipped to a net short position.

Australian Dollar CME Continuous Contract

The 1 and 4 week changes in Australian Dollar positions is extreme (speculators selling and commercials buying).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price low.

New Zealand Dollar CME Continuous Contract

The New Zealand Dollar ownership profile is near a record.  An extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a sentiment extreme and therefore a price low.