COT: Sugar Looks Sweet

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. This week’s report includes observations on Eurodollar, Lean Hogs, and Sugar.

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  • Traders chasing the inflation theme
  • Extreme positioning in Crude Oil and 5 Yr. Notes
  • Extreme position changes in the metals

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – S&P 500, Eurodollar, Crude Oil, Cocoa

13 Week Volume Highs – almost everything

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar98S&P 5007530 Yr US Bond0Gold0
Euro0NASDAQ 1003910 Year US Note18Silver8
British Pound16Dow635 Year US Note0Copper14
Swiss Franc69Nikkei22 Year US Note16Platinum39
Japanese Yen14Eurodollar94
Canadian Dollar53
Australian Dollar0
New Zealand Dollar0
Mexican Peso65
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil8Wheat69Lean Hogs53Coffee22
Heating Oil67Hard Red Winter Wheat49Live Cattle57Cotton14
RBOB Gas94Corn41Feeder Cattle49Frozen OJ12
Natural Gas100Oats37Cocoa0
Soybeans18Sugar73
Soybean Oil41
Soybean Meal35
Rough Rice4

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated February 6th, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Eurodollar CME Continuous Contract

The Eurodollar ownership profile has reached a record.  An extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a sentiment extreme and risk of a price low.

Lean Hogs CME Continuous Contract

The 1 week change in Lean Hogs positions is extreme (speculators selling and commercials buying).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price low or a pause within a downtrend.

Sugar ICEUS Continuous Contract

The 4 week change in Sugar positions is extreme (speculators selling and commercials buying).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price low or a pause within a downtrend.  Also, the Sugar ownership profile has just turned from a record.  An extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a sentiment extreme and risk of a price low.

Sugar ICEUS Continuous Contract