COT: Sugar Looks Sweet

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. This week’s report includes observations on Eurodollar, Lean Hogs, and Sugar.

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  • Traders chasing the inflation theme
  • Extreme positioning in Crude Oil and 5 Yr. Notes
  • Extreme position changes in the metals

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – S&P 500, Eurodollar, Crude Oil, Cocoa

13 Week Volume Highs – almost everything

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar18S&P 5009830 Yr US Bond16Gold49
Euro90NASDAQ 100010 Year US Note4Silver4
British Pound84Dow05 Year US Note29Copper75
Swiss Franc39Nikkei472 Year US Note57Platinum86
Japanese Yen43Eurodollar0
Canadian Dollar55
Australian Dollar18
New Zealand Dollar57
Mexican Peso78
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil94Wheat80Lean Hogs8Coffee18
Heating Oil41Hard Red Winter Wheat71Live Cattle33Cotton51
RBOB Gas88Corn84Feeder Cattle24Frozen OJ31
Natural Gas16Oats69Cocoa96
Soybeans67Sugar6
Soybean Oil43
Soybean Meal100
Rough Rice45

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated February 6th, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Eurodollar CME Continuous Contract

The Eurodollar ownership profile has reached a record.  An extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a sentiment extreme and risk of a price low.

Lean Hogs CME Continuous Contract

The 1 week change in Lean Hogs positions is extreme (speculators selling and commercials buying).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price low or a pause within a downtrend.

Sugar ICEUS Continuous Contract

The 4 week change in Sugar positions is extreme (speculators selling and commercials buying).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price low or a pause within a downtrend.  Also, the Sugar ownership profile has just turned from a record.  An extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a sentiment extreme and risk of a price low.

Sugar ICEUS Continuous Contract