COT: Sugar Looks Sweet

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. This week’s report includes observations on Eurodollar, Lean Hogs, and Sugar.

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  • Traders chasing the inflation theme
  • Extreme positioning in Crude Oil and 5 Yr. Notes
  • Extreme position changes in the metals

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – S&P 500, Eurodollar, Crude Oil, Cocoa

13 Week Volume Highs – almost everything

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar69S&P 5009830 Yr US Bond6Gold8
Euro61NASDAQ 1001410 Year US Note6Silver16
British Pound45Dow65 Year US Note2Copper49
Swiss Franc0Nikkei882 Year US Note94Platinum4
Japanese Yen92Eurodollar22
Canadian Dollar26
Australian Dollar0
New Zealand Dollar39
Mexican Peso10
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil65Wheat90Lean Hogs0Coffee43
Heating Oil55Hard Red Winter Wheat80Live Cattle0Cotton94
RBOB Gas100Corn94Feeder Cattle4Frozen OJ100
Natural Gas39Oats0Cocoa100
Soybeans80Sugar29
Soybean Oil6
Soybean Meal96
Rough Rice75

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated February 6th, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Eurodollar CME Continuous Contract

The Eurodollar ownership profile has reached a record.  An extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a sentiment extreme and risk of a price low.

Lean Hogs CME Continuous Contract

The 1 week change in Lean Hogs positions is extreme (speculators selling and commercials buying).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price low or a pause within a downtrend.

Sugar ICEUS Continuous Contract

The 4 week change in Sugar positions is extreme (speculators selling and commercials buying).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price low or a pause within a downtrend.  Also, the Sugar ownership profile has just turned from a record.  An extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a sentiment extreme and risk of a price low.

Sugar ICEUS Continuous Contract