COT: Extremes in British Pounds and Canadian Dollars

The COT report is published each Monday and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics.  This week’s report includes observations on the British Pound, 5 Year U.S. Treasury Notes, and Heating Oil.

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  • Extreme 52 week readings in GBP and CAD
  • Extreme 4 week position changes in GBP and 5 year U.S. T-Notes
  • Heating oil ownership profile eases off of extreme

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – British Pound, Canadian Dollar

13 Week Volume Highs – None

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar10S&P 5006130 Yr US Bond100Gold12
Euro100NASDAQ 100210 Year US Note41Silver2
British Pound96Dow735 Year US Note20Copper37
Swiss Franc4Nikkei592 Year US Note28Platinum18
Japanese Yen14Eurodollar33
Canadian Dollar65
Australian Dollar33
New Zealand Dollar10
Mexican Peso69
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil100Wheat2Lean Hogs63Coffee0
Heating Oil75Hard Red Winter Wheat0Live Cattle57Cotton55
RBOB Gas69Corn20Feeder Cattle28Frozen OJ49
Natural Gas0Oats77Cocoa84
Soybean Oil33
Soybean Meal98
Rough Rice51

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (100 reading on the table) with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (0 reading on the table) with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated October 3rd, 2017

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

British Pound CME Continuous Contract

The 4 week change in British Pound positions is extreme (speculators buying and commercials selling).  The extreme reading is consistent with at least a pause in price advance.

5 Year U.S. Treasury Notes CBOT Continuous Contract

The 4 week change in 5 Year U.S. Treasury Notes positions is extreme (speculators selling and commercials buying).  The extreme reading is consistent with conditions seen near a price low.

Heating Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract

The ownership profile has turned from a record.  An extreme speculative long position and extreme commercial short position warns of a sentiment extreme and therefore a price top.