Metals and Coffee Ownership Profiles Warn of MAJOR Turn Potential

The COT report is published each week and includes observations on charts of markets that exhibit interesting ownership characteristics and/or changes in ownership characteristics. This week’s update includes observations on British Pounds, metals (gold and platinum), and coffee.

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  • British Pound positioning is extreme
  • Metals positioning is…insane
  • Coffee positioning is the exact opposite of November 2016 when price topped

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – U.S. Dollar Index, Euro, British Pound, 10 Yr. U.S. T-Note, Gold, Copper, Platinum, Soybean Oil, Coffee

13 Week Volume Highs – None

Currencies Indexes Interest Rates Metals 
US Dollar22S&P 5002930 Yr US Bond61Gold98
Euro61NASDAQ 1007710 Year US Note45Silver96
British Pound2Dow925 Year US Note82Copper20
Swiss Franc94Nikkei782 Year US Note37Platinum78
Japanese Yen94Eurodollar98
Canadian Dollar100
Australian Dollar75
New Zealand Dollar57
Mexican Peso77
Energies Agriculture Meats Softs 
Crude Oil43Wheat67Lean Hogs77Coffee94
Heating Oil65Hard Red Winter Wheat43Live Cattle4Cotton4
RBOB Gas12Corn92Feeder Cattle31Frozen OJ29
Natural Gas0Oats69Cocoa98
Soybeans96Sugar14
Soybean Oil49
Soybean Meal16
Rough Rice94

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.  Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated August 21st, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

British Pound CME Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in British Pounds is extreme.  The extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.  Barring part of the July 2016-April 2017 period (post-Brexit bottoming process), May 2010 and May 2013 are the only other times that the ownership profile has been this extreme (indicated by vertical lines).

Gold COMEX Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Gold is at a record.  The extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.  In fact, the only other period in which the net speculative position was short was for several weeks in August, November, and December 2001.

Platinum COMEX Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Platinum is at a record.  The extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.

Coffee ICEUS Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Coffee is at a record.  The extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.  In fact, the ownership profile is the polar opposite of November 2016, when coffee made a significant price high.