I opened up the Midweek Strategy Webinar to the public this week and plan on doing so once a month. This week’s webinar started with the following chart.
DXY 1997-1998 (top) and DXY Now
This chart is from late August but the comparison remains valid. In 1998, DXY made a Jan low, April high, June low, and the final closing high on 8/27. So far in 2019, we’ve got a Jan low, April high, June low, and a closing high on 7/31 (high on 8/1…which was a massive volume reversal). Price action in 1998 and 2019 both form slightly upward sloping channels. Elliott would call this an ending diagonal and reversals from ending diagonals are often sharp. Both 1998 and 2019 also rode the 200 day average.
Yesterday’s EURUSD action reinforces the comparison with 1998. The charts below show J-Spikes on volume (20 day lows with range above 20 day ATR and volume at least 2x 20 day average volume). 9/12 is the 6th such signal since 2014. Signals include the days of the 2014 high, 2015 low, and 2018 high. I recall that the 2014 high and 2015 low were ECB days. Other signals triggered at a minor low in June 2015 (Fed or ECB day?) and the day of the 2016 U.S. election. The only other days that meet this criteria are 8/16/2001 and 12/2/2002. Given this information, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that 9/12 ends up as the 2019 low.
The webinar also includes commentary on USD majors, crude oil, SPX and the concept of median line acceleration (and more). Check it out and if you like what you see then join us!
Jamie specializes in swing trade setups. His 2008 book, Sentiment in the Forex Market, details trading and analysis techniques that he continues to use. More importantly, his trading style and education is a result of years of real trade experience both inside and outside FX.