Here are just a few highlights of the intraday setups we’ve been tracking this week. Charts are published with each calendar update & discussed daily in live Intraday Strategy Webinars.
(10/18) – A re-work of the Aussie levels offers some clarity here an although I’m not looking at any imminent positioning, there are some levels to know. Failure to hold above the monthly ORH has me thinking exhaustion and I’m looking for a rally to fade while below confluence resistance at the weekly ORH / ML at 7898. A break below channel support targets 7795 – critical near-term support, look for a reaction there. A topside breach invalidates the pullback play with such a scenario targeting 7929 & 7975. Australia employment figures are out later tonight.
(10/19) – Levels / Outlook Unchanged. Price has drifted back towards the weekly / monthly ORH – IF the pair is heading lower, price should hold sub-7898.
Notes: Aussie attempted to rally towards the opening-range highs with price turning sharply ahead of the 7898 threshold on Friday. The subsequent decline has taken out channel support with initial targets eyed at 7796. Look for a reaction there heading into next week with a break below the monthly 7735 needed to keep the short-bias in play. Keep in mind we have 3Q CPI out of Australia on Tuesday night in New York.
(10/15) – What I like about this setup is the sheer simplicity of the near-term price action. Fading the CPI rally was the right move on Friday but a strong reversal just ahead of slope support / 1.618% ext at 9701 has me a little hesitant heading into the start of the week. The levels are clear though- the immediate focus is on a resolution to the 9700-9773 range with bearish invalidation steady at 9800. A break below the figure eyes targets stacked up at 9678/80 & the 100% Ext / 100DMA at 9650/55.
(10/17) – Like clockwork – Swissie registered a high at 9808 before reversing lower. I’m holding a short off the figure eyeing initial targets at 9773 & the MLP (red) / weekly ORL at 9730. A break there would be needed to suggest a larger correction is underway with such a scenario eyeing confluence support at 9678/80– note that the 100% ext also converges on this region. A breach above 9821 would put the broader long-bias back in play targeting the ML / 9882.
(10/19) – USDCHF went for a test of the objective monthly ORH at 9836 before turning over. Levels / Outlook unchanged with the risk still lower below this week’s high.
Notes: Sometimes you find yourself trying to call highs in markets and while the short-side did offer some near-term plays this week, a strong reversal on Friday saw USDCHF mount yearly slope resistance AND the 200-day moving average.
A look at the weekly chart however, still has price below a key confluence area of resistance at 98670/82– a region defined by weekly slope resistance, the 52-week moving average, and the 50% retracement of the December decline. Look for a reaction there next week with a close above needed to keep the outlook constructive eyeing targets into the 1.01-handle.
(10/15) – Simplicity is key. Gold has posted six consecutive daily advances after rebounding off the 61.8% retracement earlier this month. Price has been holding this slope rather well and suggests we’reopening the week at near-term resistance. Interim support rests at 1297 with near-term bullish invalidation raised to 1290– a break there would suggest a larger correction down towards 1279/81. A breach higher from here could see 1309 & 1320 in a hurry.
(10/17) – Gold reversed off slope resistance noted earlier this week with the decline turning just pips away from the highlighted support confluence at 1279/81 (note the 61.8% retracement just lower at 1278). Looking for signs of near-term exhaustion here – interim resistance at 1290 backed by bearish invalidation at 1296/97.
(10/19) – Boom! Outside-day reversal off the 61.8% retracement shifts the focus higher while above today’s lows. Look for a reaction up at 1295 with a breach there eyeing subsequent resistance objectives at the monthly ORH / 50% retracement at 1306 & 1309.
Notes: We had the right idea looking lower into the weekly open with prices dropping into support on Wednesday. An outside day reversal on Thursday did shift the focus higher, but prices reversed sharply lower the following day. What do we do here? The focus heading into next week is on the 1278/80 support zone (near-term bullish invalidation). A breach above 1297 would be needed to suggest a more significant low may be in place.
Other setups covered this week included:
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