Here are just a few highlights of the intraday setups we’ve been tracking this week. Charts are published with each calendar update & discussed daily in live Intraday Strategy Webinars.
It was a major week of event risk heading into the November open and we aim to keep our subscribers aware of the most compelling setups to be tracking into these releases. This week’s example highlights the Bank of England interest rate decision. We had two setups heading into the BoE- a favored play for Sterling strength (GBPUSD) and another in the scenario of Sterling weakness (GBPJPY).
(10/29) – Its been tough being a Sterling bull these days, but prices are still holding above key slope support. Keep in mind we have Super Thursday on tap this week with the BoE rate decision & inflation report likely to spur a good amount of volatility in the GBP crosses. Key support & bullish invalidation steady at 1.3020.
(11/1) – Its decision time for cable heading into Super Thursday. We discussed the implications of this rate decision and it’s significance at length in today’s webinar and heading into tomorrow, the technical picture remains unchanged. Interim support now at 1.3225 with near-term bullish invalidation now raised to the 61.8% retracement at 1.3165. Depending on how this goes tomorrow, I’ll be looking to fade weakness while within this near-term formation. Topside resistance objectives eyed at 1.3338, 1.3381/93 and broader 61.8% retracement of the September decline at 1.3418.
(11/2) – Well things didn’t go quite as planned here with a dovish hike today slamming the Sterling crosses (perfect play on GBPJPY). That said, Cable continues to trade just above a critical support zone highlighted on all three time frames at 1.3020/30. The weekly close will be paramount here – a move below this region risks substantial losses for the Pound with such a scenario eyeing initial targets at 1.2854 and the December high at 1.2775. A breach above weekly open resistance at 1.3127 would be needed to alleviate the immediate downside pressure.
Notes: A ‘dovish hike‘ as its being called, saw the Pound crosses collapse and our bullish Cable scenario was quickly invalidated. However despite the decline, the pair did manage to close the week just above critical support at 1.3020/30. The focus is on this key region heading into next week- we’ll be tracking this one closely.
(10/23) – GBPJPY has continued to follow this slope with precision. The pair turned from confluence resistance at 150.48/60– a region defined by the 100% ext, the 61.8% retracement and the monthly open. Immediate risk is lower but I would be looking for long-entries on a move into the 50-line. Interim support 149.20 backed by 148.43– area of interest for exhaustion / long-entries. A breach higher targets the monthly ORH at 150.96 and key resistance at 151.95-152.02.
(11/1) – The high registered at 151.93, just pips from the 151.94-152.02 target. Heading into the BoE, I could see a scenario of exhaustion into the upper parallel just higher before pulling back. In the event of GBP weakness, I think this may perform well. Interim support at 150.96 backed by 150.48 & near-term bullish invalidation at 149.21. Bottom line: if cable rips higher from here look for initial targets at 152.86 backed by 154.70.
Notes: GBPJPY worked well! The pair turned sharply lower after breaking below the October opening-range high at 150.96 with the decline taking out targets at 149.21 before losing steam into the close of the week. An outside-week leaves the risk for a move lower heading deeper into November trade and a newly identified down-slope has us targeting confluence support targets into the 1.47-handle and below.
(10/30) – Loonie came within striking distance of the 50% retracement at 1.2927 before turning lower on Friday. A parallel extending off the 9/6 high also converges on this zone into tomorrow. I’m inclined to look lower from here but we’re heading into the close of the month and can’t yet rule-out another run on resistance (daily RSI still in overbought) That said, interim resistance stands at 1.2860 with a break below 1.2757 needed to shift the focus towards support targets at 1.2663 & 1.2590/97.
Notes: Looking lower against 1.2927 was the right move this week with the decline breaking below support on strong Canada employment data on Friday. The immediate focus heading into next week remains lower below the monthly open at 1.2887.
Other setups covered this week included:
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
- Ethereum (ETHUSD)
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