Previous week highlights from the SB Swing Trade archives include observations BEFORE FOMC on BTCUSD, USDOLLAR, USDCAD, Copper, and ‘risk sentiment’. Needless to say, market moves after FOMC weren’t a shock to SB Trade Desk.
6/14/2021 Swing Update
BTCUSD 4 HOUR
BTCUSD is still playing out in perfect Elliott form as price nears the noted zone of 42000-44000. The rally would consist of 2 equal legs at 42451 and the 38.2% retrace is 43963 (don’t forget about last week’s observation regarding 38.2% retraces in BTCUSD after plunges from record highs). Bottom line, we’re looking for the next high soon.
USDOLLAR 4 HOUR
USDOLLAR is nearing (again!) the median line from the structure that originates at the 2017 high. A move above the line would represent an important behavior change and signal (finally!?) that price is about to burst higher from the base that began in January. Notice RSI on the 4 hour chart. 40 has been ‘support’ for the indicator and price tops have occurred when the indicator is ‘overbought’. This puts USDOLLAR in a ‘positive RSI profile’ on this time frame.
USDCAD 4 HOUR
USDCAD has completed a bottoming pattern. Upside focus is the trendline from April 2020, which is in line with the March low at 1.2365 at the end of the month (see daily chart below). I’m bullish now as price is testing a short term neckline but 1.2100 is proposed support if the current level fails to hold.
6/15/2021 Swing Update
COPPER FUTURES DAILY
Copper broke today and the first level of interest on the downside is the 23.6% retrace of the rally from March 2020 at 4.20. This level coincides with resistance from this March. Former support at 4.4440 (also the 50 day average) is now proposed resistance.
S&P 500 FUTURES (ES) DAILY
ES completed a 2 day volume reversal today (high volume rally followed immediately by a high volume decline). The red bars show 2 day volume reversals from 1 year highs. It’s interesting that this signal occurred on the same day as the copper break. The chart below plots copper, SPX, and AUDUSD. I’m wondering if FOMC is going to kick off a period of risk aversion.
COPPER (ORANGE), SPX (BLACK), AUDUSD (RED) DAILY