SB Trade Desk Highs and Lows: 11/13/2017

Highlights include NZDUSD, DAX, and USDCAD

Each weekend, we’ll share a few examples of our work from the prior week.  Many in this business scream to the high heavens when they make a good call and conveniently ignore when they are wrong… they are charlatans.  Our goal with ‘Highs and Lows’ is to review what we got right and more importantly, what we got wrong.  The following examples are from the Swing Updates, published Sunday to Thursday (here is a Swing Update tutorial).

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Highs and Lows for the Week Ended 11/10/2017 



11/8 – NZDUSD has traded into resistance (high is .6973 so  far).  I am looking for a turn lower.  That simple.

Aftermath – We took a short at .6950 on 11/10.  We remain short.

DAX Weekly

11/7 – The DAX has traded into and reversed sharply from a long term parallel.  The parallel is based on the 2003-2009 trendline and extends off of the January 2014 high.  That line was resistance for tops in December 2015 and May-June of this year.  The rally looks complete from a wave structure standpoint on short term charts as well.  Further, a DAX top may correlate with a EURUSD bottom as per the strong relationship since 10/25 (see 2 charts down).

Aftermath – The DAX followed through on the 11/7 reversal and the near term ebbs and flows in this index are helping us navigate EURUSD levels with precision.  The DAX is a market that we’ll be following closely moving forward due to its clarity from both a long and short term perspective.



11/5 – One more push into 1.2969 would be ideal for a short.  The 200 day average is up there too (see below)!  Friday’s high volume level is 1.2734 and potential support early in the week.  I’ll re-consider potential for one more push if price breaks (and stays) below Friday’s low.

Aftermath – Bought 1.2740 and was stopped out at 1.2705.  The extent of the drop from the 10/27 has me questioning whether or not USDCAD will make an attempt on the well-defined 1.2970s.