SB Trade Desk Highs and Lows: 11/20/2017

Highlights include USDJPY, EURNZD, and EURJPY

Each weekend, we’ll share a few examples of our work from the prior week.  Many in this business scream to the high heavens when they make a good call and conveniently ignore when they are wrong… they are charlatans.  Our goal with ‘Highs and Lows’ is to review what we got right and more importantly, what we got wrong.  The following examples are from the Swing Updates, published Sunday to Thursday (here is a Swing Update tutorial).

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Highs and Lows for the Week Ended 11/17/2017 

HIGHS

USDJPY Weekly

11/6 – USDJPY reversed after taking out the July and May highs during the Asian session.  How many false breakouts/reversals do there need to be before the cross picks a direction!?  There is a lot up here for resistance, including the May and July highs, March 2016 high, trendline from the 2015 high, and 61.8% of the December 2016-September decline at 114.32.  Near term (see below), 2 spots to pay attention are the 20 day average near 11320 and the bullish lower parallel near 112.50.  I’m looking for a lower high against today’s high, especially given the turn higher in gold from well-defined support.

Aftermath – We went short at 114.30 on 11/7.  Our limit was just hit at 111.90.

EURNZD 4 Hour

11/12 – EURNZD has turned up and broken through wedge resistance.  The implication is bullish.  Levels for resistance within the range are 1.6996 (month open) and 1.7146 (daily reversal resistance) but this break through the short term wedge line could mark the resumption of the bull trend that has been underway since February.

Aftermath – The wedge breakout has led to trend highs in EURNZD (above 1.7407).

LOW

EURJPY 4 Hour

11/12 – EURJPY has failed to breakdown but could be rallying to complete 3 waves up from the 10/30 low at 131.45.  The ideal spot for resistance is the 61.8% of the drop from the top at 133.33.  The bearish upper parallel intersects that level during early US trade on Monday.

Aftermath – EURJPY did not find resistance near 133.33.  Price traded up to 133.87 before rolling over.  A broader top remains possible.