SB Trade Desk March Analysis Highlights

Analysis examples from March are shared below.  If you think that the trade ideas and/or analysis can compliment your trading process, then click on the button below to join the community.

@JamieSaettele

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March 9

CRUDE OIL WEEKLY

Crude Oil Weekly

That was a blowoff top in crude oil.  Interestingly, resistance came in at the same parallel that nailed the Gulf War high in 1990.  I’m not going to get into detail on the near term charts just yet other than noting 97.60s for support and 115.50 for resistance.  Also, USO completed a high volume 2 day reversal.  This last happened in September 2019 (see below).

USO DAILY

USO Daily

NASDAQ FUTURES (NQ) DAILY

Nasdaq Futures (NQ) Daily

NQ held the top side of the line that originates at the November 2014 high.  This line crosses highs in 2018 and 2020, and lows  in 2020.  It was also support on 2/24.  I’m ‘thinking’ that price attempts a recovery back into 15000+.  There’s a lot up there for resistance, including the underside of former channel support, the 200 day average, and the 61.8% retrace.

March 15

ASHR DAILY CLOSES

ASHR Daily closes

ASHR tracks an index of the 300 largest and most liquid Chinese shares traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges. The fund holds physical China A-shares.  A 2 bar daily volume reversal triggered today.  Previous bullish reversals are highlighted.  This is also a well-defined support level from former highs in 2019 and 2020 and the line that extends off of the 2019 and 2020 lows (closing prices).  A bullish ASHR could act as a tailwind for commodity FX, notably AUDUSD.

March 22

NZDUSD DAILY

NZDUSD Daily

The NZDUSD low was indeed 3/15 and price has now broken above the key neckline.  This line (upward sloping blue line) has been key support and resistance since August so the move above is significant and viewed with a great deal of confidence.  For this reason, I like the Kiwi setup better than the AUDUSD setup.  .6890 should be support if reached.  The upside level of interest is the line off of highs in 2021 (red line) near .7050.

March 28

BTCUSD DAILY

BTCUSD Daily

The triangle scenario described last week is no longer valid in BTCUSD.  However, note that price has reached the 200 day average and the upper parallel from the median line of the fork that originates at the April 2021 high is slightly higher…near 49500.  Pay close attention to that level for resistance if reached because since the January low registered right at the median line.

ETHUSD DAILY

ETHUSD Daily

ETHUSD is closing in on the 200 day average and the line that connects the May and September highs.  This line was support prior to the big decline early this year.  I’m on alert for resistance.

March 29

NASDAQ (NQ) FUTURES DAILY

Nasdaq (NQ) Futures Daily

NQ has reached the zone that was noted for possible resistance 3 weeks ago.  The February high has been reached and the underside of former channel support is slightly higher near 15415.  The top of the zone is support from December at 15538.  I’m on alert for a reversal up here.

FXY (JAPANESE YEN ETF) DAILY

FXY (Japanese Yen ETF) Daily

FXY (Japanese Yen ETF) completed a 2 bar volume reversal today.  I’ve highlighted all of the bullish reversals since 2016.  All but one of the signals nailed the turn.  Signals on the other side were reliable as well.  Be aware that this chart plots JPYUSD so bullish signals are bearish USDJPY signals.  On the spot chart (see below), 123.15/50 should provide resistance if a tradeable high is in place.  The top of this zone is VWAP from the high, which has proved useful so far in identifying resistance.  The next levels of interest on the downside are 121.40 and 120.40.

USDJPY HOURLY

USDJPY Hourly