After a horrendous first 9 months of trading, SB Swing Trades booked 889 pips in October and November (see trade log here). December is off to a great start as well. FX volatility is still extremely low but price action the last few months has more ‘flow’. There is a rhythm to FX again and we’ve been in tune with that rhythm. If you’ve traded for an extended period of time, then you know what I mean. Another reason for the change in trading fortunes is that the USD has turned down. I’ve leaned USD bearish this year, stubbornly at times, and this theme is finally bearing fruit. Recall the public post from 8/22 about USDSEK and DXY (chart and commentary from that post is below). USDSEK topped in October and recently broke the lower barrier of a year long wedge. This development bodes well for bigger picture USD downside. Even if this break is the real deal (no one knows), the move won’t be in a straight line. Precise entry, stop, target and risk management is required in order to succeed. It’s not easy but it is possible. If you’ve stayed away from FX due to lack of volatility or left because trading was awful, then now is the time to embrace / re-embrace the largest market in the world.
USDSEK and DXY Weekly (from 8/22 public post)
USDSEK traded into its Feb/March 1985 high on Tuesday and reversed sharply today. Feb/March 1985 was the all-time high in DXY. The Plaza Accord (coordinated intervention to weaken the USD) took place in Sep 1985. Despite USDSEK trading to its highest since 2002, DXY is still below the 2017 high (high was on the first trading day of the year in 2017). This is a massive non-confirmation (think Dow theory but for FX). The opposite situation occurred at lows in the 1970s. In 1975, USDSEK traded to a new low but DXY did not. This marked a temporary low. In June 1980, DXY made its final low as USDSEK was well above its 1975 low. A sharp USD uptrend followed. The current non-confirmation sets up for a sharp USD downtrend.