US Dollar Grinding into a Top

9/25/2015: USDOLLAR Daily

USDOLLAR Q4 Forecast Chart

Markets oscillate, not just between highs and lows, but also between trends and ranges.  The rally into March (trend) was succeeded by a sideways range.    That range has taken the form of a triangle with a long term median line and 200 day average providing support.  The energy created by the last 6+ months of sideways trading could produce the next directional move but pay attention to uptrend resistance (line with the red circles on it…this line was also support in March) for a failed breakout.  Seasonal tendencies are bullish into late November but then turn bearish into year-end.  Viewed in this light, the USDOLLAR index could grind higher for the next 2-3 months before realizing a decline that leads many to question the integrity of the multi-year bull trend.  A price to keep in mind is 12305, which is the 127.2% expansion of the March-May decline.  Uptrend resistance intersects this price in late November / early December.